© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A restaurant advertising job seeks to attract workers in Oceanside, California, U.S., May 10, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Blake
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. private employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in March, boosting the labor market recovery, but corporate profit growth slowed significantly in the fourth quarter amid rising costs.
The private sector payroll rose by 455,000 jobs last month, the ADP’s National Employment Report revealed on Wednesday. Data for February has been revised up to show 486,000 jobs added instead of the 475,000 originally reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the private payroll to rise by 450,000 jobs.
Medium and large companies accounted for 80% of private jobs created last month.
Manufacturers added 54,000 jobs, while the leisure and hospitality sector hired an additional 161,000 workers. There were also significant payroll gains in professional and business services as well as health care and education. Trade, transportation and utility companies also boosted hiring, but construction hiring slowed for a third straight month.
Demand for workers is boosted by the rolling back of COVID-19 restrictions nationwide amid a massive drop in coronavirus cases. There is no evidence that Russia’s month-long war against Ukraine has hurt the labor market.
Initial jobless claims are at a 52-and-a-half-year low, while the number of Americans registered as unemployed is the lowest since 1970.
The ADP report is developed in conjunction with Moody’s (NYSE:) Analytics and was released Friday ahead of the Labor Department’s more comprehensive and closely watched jobs report for March. It does, however, have a poor track record in predicting the number of private payrolls in the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report due to differences in methodology.
“The ADP report hasn’t proved a useful guide to payroll numbers in recent months, but it echoes the fairly bullish message from other indicators,” said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics.
US stocks were mostly down. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. US Treasury yields fell.
SHORTAGE OF WORKERS
Government data on Tuesday showed there were a near record 11.3 million job vacancies on the last day of February, leaving the gap between jobs and workers at 3.0 % of the labor force and near the post-war peak of 3.2% in December. Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 490,000 jobs in March, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The economy added 678,000 jobs in February.
But the good news for the economy was tempered by a separate Commerce Department report released Wednesday showing corporate profit growth slowed significantly in the fourth quarter as domestic financial firms suffered declines. Profits for domestic non-financial corporations and the rest of the world rose moderately.
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments rose at a rate of 0.7% or $20.4 billion in the fourth quarter after rising at a pace of 3.4% or $96.9 billion in the third quarter. Profits jumped during the pandemic as demand shifted to goods from services.
Profit margins fell to 12.2% last quarter.
“While still elevated by historical comparison, falling margins suggest the higher cost environment is eating away at profitability,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo (NYSE:) in Charlotte, North Carolina. “With cost pressures remaining lingering and demand slowing, we expect margins to slow further this year as businesses find it increasingly difficult to pass costs on to consumers.”
Strong demand for goods has strained supply chains, with the COVID-19 pandemic sidelining millions of workers around the world who are needed to produce goods in factories and get them to consumers . This fueled inflation, which worsened after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.
The Federal Reserve this month raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, the first hike in more than three years, and signaled an aggressive stance that left the bond market fearing a recession down the road. The 2-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, widely followed for signals about the economy, briefly inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019.
But economists said the Fed’s massive holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities made it difficult to read yield curve movements clearly.
“This is likely putting further downward pressure on long-term rates, and it may not be until the balance sheet reduction begins, probably in June, that we will have a better idea of the extent. distortion of long-term returns,” he added. said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief US economist at Citigroup (NYSE:) in New York.
Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter, the government said in its third estimate on Wednesday. The economy grew at a rate of 2.3% in the third quarter. Growth is 3.1% higher than its pre-pandemic level.
Economists expect the expansion to continue, with a tightening labor market and massive savings protecting households against high inflation. Growth estimates for the first quarter are mostly below a 1.0% rate.